The economy is expected to recover slowly, with subdued consumer spending and business investment the ECB foresees a eurozone GDP contraction of –8.7 percent in 2020 overall.
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For the second quarter, when the lockdowns were in full effect, the european Central Bank (ECB) estimates that the eurozone GDP contraction will be –13 percent. The severity of the outbreak and the response varies by country, factors which will affect the size of the contractions. In the eurozone, GDP contracted by –3.6 percent in the first quarter of 2020. Forecasting institutions and scenario planners are estimating significant contractions in global GDP. The damage to businesses and economies is becoming more visible every day. New approaches are emerging quickly not only for underwriting and monitoring but also for customer assistance and loss mitigation (which will be the topic of a separate article). Leading banks are accelerating digital transformation to enable real-time monitoring and effective mining of transaction data, while automating the feeding of results into decision making. Data and analytics capabilities are proving essential to the solution. Early experience is revealing a path forward, as banks distinguish the varying impact the crisis is having on different sectors and subsectors of the economy, and direct more attention to the financials and business models of individual households and companies. With lockdowns now being lifted and businesses restarting, lending institutions are faced with a new and unfamiliar environment, in which they must evaluate and monitor credit risk with limited visibility and access to reliable data. There is much more epidemiological work to do, as the pandemic remains dangerously active.Ĭountermeasures taken to contain the virus and save lives stopped the economy from functioning. As of late July 2020, more than 14 million cases have been confirmed worldwide the virus has taken the lives of more than 600,000 people. It has forced regional and national economies to close for weeks and months at a time, causing hardship-sometimes of existential gravity-for many populations. Bancorp Investments Order Processing information.The coronavirus pandemic is a humanitarian crisis that continues to affect lives and livelihoods around the world. An investor brochure describing BrokerCheck is also available through FINRA. To request such information, contact FINRA toll-free at 800.289.9999 or via.
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